Innovation & Creativity

WELCOME TO THE 2006 IWF WORLD LEADERSHIP CONFERENCE on INNOVATION & CREATIVITY! HERE IN SEATTLE – IN THE HEART OF AMERICAN INVENTIVENESS, WE WELCOME YOU TO THIS DISCUSSION IMPACTING OUR PRESENT AND FUTURE. REPRESENTING 30 NATIONS AROUND THE GLOBE, THIS CONFERENCE WILL TAKE US TO NEW PLACES WHERE WOMEN LEADERS TREAD --- TO IMPROVE OUR BUSINESSES, OUR LIVES AND COMMUNITIES.

IN 2005, THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC SYSTEM WAS DOMINATED BY THE UNITED STATES WITH A GDP OF $11.7 TRILLION. THE OTHER TRILLIONAIRE COUNTRIES WERE JAPAN AT $4.4; GERMANY $2.0; CHINA $1.7; BRITAIN $1.6 FRANCE $1.5 AND ITALY $1.2. GOLDMAN SACHS ATTEMPTED TO PROJECT WHICH COUNTRIES HAD THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMIES OVER THE NEXT 50 YEARS. RATHER THAN EXTRAPOLATE A FIGURE FROM CURRENT GROWTH RATES, THE STUDY PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT BY APPLYING EXISTING MODELS. THE RESULTS OF THESE ALLOWED THE RESEARCHERS TO GET A GOOD IDEA OF FUTURE GROWTH. IMPORTANTLY, THE AGEING COUNTRIES OF EUROPE AND JAPAN DO NOT STAGNATE, GIVEN THEIR TRADE WITH AND INVESTMENT IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD. THE AUTHORS OF THE STUDY ASSUME THAT FUTURE GOVERNMENTS WILL BE COMPETENTLY RUN, FOSTERING STABILITY, OPENNESS, STRONG INSTITUTIONS AND THE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REQUIRED FOR ECONOMIES TO FLOURISH.

TO CHECK THEIR EFFECTIVENESS. THE AUTHORS RE-RAN THE MODEL BASED ON WHAT THE WORLD LOOKED LIKE IN 1960. WHAT THEY FOUND WAS: WITHIN IN 5 YEARS, CHINA OVERTAKES GERMANY, TO BECOME THE THIRD LARGEST ECONOMY BEHIND THE U.S. AND JAPAN . CHINA 'S ECONOMY SLOWLY COOLS, BUT JAPAN 'S ECONOMY IS STONE COLD IN COMPARISON, WITH A REAL GROWTH RATE OF BARELY A PERCENTAGE POINT PER YEAR IN THE COMING DECADE. IN 2016, CHINA PASSES THE $5 TRILLION BARRIER AND OVERTAKES JAPAN TO BECOME NUMBER 2 IN THE WORLD.

ALSO AROUND THIS TIME, A NEW CONTENDER COMES IN TO CHALLENGE ITALY 'S STATUS. INDIA WHICH HAD A GDP OF $604 BILLION IN 2005 IS GROWING AT 6% PER YEAR. IN 2011, IT JOINS THE LEAGUE OF TRILLIONAIRE COUNTRIES AND FIVE YEARS LATER IS WORTH $1.5 TRILLION. WHAT INDIA ENJOYS THAT NO OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD HAS IS A GROWING WORKING AGE POPULATION, AND A PLENTIFUL SUPPLY OF INDIAN WORKERS THAT WILL HELP THE COUNTRY MAINTAIN A GROWTH RATE OF AROUND 6%. IN 2016, INDIA TAKES OVER ITALY 'S POSITION AND SHORTLY LATER, OVERTAKES BRITAIN IN 2018 AND FRANCE. IN 2019. THIS DOESN'T SPELL GLOOM AND DOOM FOR THE RICH COUNTRIES OF TODAY. LIVING STANDARDS ARE STILL HIGH.

BY 2020, THE U.S. IS STILL NUMBER ONE WITH A GDP OF $16.4 TRILLION, FOLLOWED BY CHINA WITH $7.1; JAPAN $5.2; GERMANY $2.5; BRITAIN $2.3; INDIA $2.1 AND FRANCE TRAILING WITH $1.9. THE BRITS CAN REJOICE WHEN, AFTER A 60 YEAR INTERVAL, THEY BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE IN EUROPE --- SURPASSING GERMANY IN 2036. BRITAIN REMAINS EUROPE 'S STRONGMAN. AT THE SAME TIME, THEIR SOCCER RIVALS, BRAZIL , HAVE COME OF AGE, AND IN THE SAME YEAR, BRAZIL TAKES ITS PLACE IN THE TRILLIONAIRE CLUB.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY, CHINA WILL BE RULING THE ROOST WITH A GDP OF $44.5 TRILLION. THE U.S. WAS OVERTAKEN 9 YEARS EARLIER IN 2041, AND HAS CLEARLY LOST DOMINANCE WITH A COMPARATIVELY MODEST GDP OF $35.2. INDIA , WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE, IS CLOSING IN WITH A GDP OF $27 TRILLION.

IN THE MEANTIME, IN A RECENT SURVEY OF 200 MOSTLY FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES, AN IRREVERSIBLE PROCESS OF TRADITIONAL WHITE-COLLAR JOBS BEING SENT TO ASIA IS INDICATED. SURVEY RESPONDENTS SAID THEY ARE LIKELY TO SEND WORK TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES: INDIA (69%); CHINA (8%); THE PHILIPPINES (5%); LATIN AMERICA (5%); EASTERN EUROPE (4%) AND THE CARIBBEAN/MEXICO (2%).

MORE AND MORE, THE WORK BEING OUTSOURCED GOES BEYOND CALL CENTERS AND SIMILAR SERVICES TO INCLUDE RESEARCH, HR FUNCTIONS, AND ENGINEERING SERVICES. FAST FORWARD, SEATTLE 2006 -- DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES HAVE NO LOCK ON INNOVATION. TECHNOLOGY IS THE GREAT LEVELER, THE POWERFUL INCREDIENT THAT CATAPULTS COMPANIES, INDUSTRIES, AND EVEN COUNTRIES TO THE HEAD OF THE CLASS ALMOST OVERNIGHT.

ASIA IS COMPETING IN THE GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY-ENABLED GAME, AND RESEARCHERS WILL SOON HAVE AS MUCH TO FEAR FROM THIS TREND AS CALL CENTER EMPLOYEES HAD IN THE PAST.

IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE'LL HEAR FROM LEADERS IN CHINA, INDIA, SINGAPORE, TANZANIA, UGANDA, JORDAN, PERU, IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, HAITI, GREAT BRITAIN REPRESENTING MARKETS LARGE, SMALL, DEVELOPED AND EMERGING ON HOW INNOVATION AND CREATIVITY ARE CHANGING PROSPECTS ACROSS THE GLOBE.

WE WILL HEAR FROM LEADERS OF THE COMPANIES NAMED IN A RECENT BUSINESS WEEK AND BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP INTERNATIONAL SURVEY AS THE 25 MOST INNOVATIVE IN THE WORLD TODAY.

AND, WE WILL MEET WITH THE LEADERS AND LEGENDS OF SEATTLE'S INNOVATION ELITE AT THE FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER, THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, ON THE MICROSOFT CAMPUS, AT STARBUCKS. AND IN THE STUDIO OF WORLD RENOWNED GLASS BLOWER – DALE CHIHULY.

BY LAND, BY WATER, WE WILL HEAR FROM LEADING ARCHITECTS AND THOUGHT LEADERS ON SEATTLE'S ALTERNATIVE CITY-SCAPES, LIFESTYLES AND SOLUTIONS FOR A WORLD TRANSFORMING AT RECORD PACE.

WE WILL CONSIDER HOW QUICKLY THE FORCES OF GLOBALIZATION CAN CHANGE…KEEPING IN MIND THE PAST'S POTENTIAL PROLOGUE……

LOOKING BACK TO 1914, WHEN A NUMBER OF FACTORS CAME INTO PLAY --- FROM AN OVER-EXTENDED SUPERPOWER TO A RISE IN TERRORISM USHERING IN THE FIRST WORLD WAR ---- GIVES HISTORIANS LIKE NIALL FERGUSON A SENSE OF DÉJÀ VU. FERGUSON REMINDS US THAT THE YEARS 1880-1914 WERE THE FIRST AGE OF GLOBALIZATION FROM THE MOMENT THE TRANSATLANTIC CABLE WAS LAID IN 1866, UNTIL THE CUTTING OF THE CABLES TO GERMANY AFTER WAR BROKE-OUT IN 1914. AND, THE POSSIBILITY IS AS REAL TODAY AS IT WAS IN 1915 THAT WHAT WE SEE AS GLOBAL MARKETS AND DEVELOPMENT, COULD BE RADICALLY UNDERMINED. THE WORLD COULD FIND ITSELF SWEPT INTO ECONOMIC DE-GLOBALIZATION BY AN INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CRISIS LIKE OUR GREAT-GRANDFATHERS EXPERIENCED IN 1914.

AN UNDERCURRENT OF OUR DISCUSSIONS HERE IN SEATTLE ON INNOVATION'S FUTURE IS THE NECESSITY OF GOOD GOVERNANCE, POLICY MAKING AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION THAT MITIGATES RISK FOR A WORLD OTHERWISE DEBILITATED IN ITS ABSENCE. FROM THE EXECUTIVE SUITE TO THE WORLD BANK, BEIJING TO NEW DELHI, FROM ACADEME TO THE RESEARCH LAB, AND BEYOND, THE CONFERENCE WE ARE ABOUT TO EMBARK ON BECKONS YOU TO CONSIDER -- INNOVATIVELY AND CREATIVELY -- NEW POSSIBILITIES; A HIGHER POTENTIAL; AND THE THOUGHTFUL VISION OF LEADERS FROM AROUND THE GLOBE.

WELCOME IWF…IT IS MY PLEASURE AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE TO YOU, THE CO-CHAIRS OF THIS 2006 WORLD LEADERSHIP CONFERENCE –

DEBORAH BEVIER, PRESIDENT, IWF WASHINGTON STATE AND SALLY JEWELL, PRESIDENT & CEO OF R.E.I….